Markets on hold for health care vote

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Published Date 3/24/2017

The bond market started quietly this morning. Health care vote is still the concern of the day today. Yesterday the vote was called off because there were not enough votes to pass it as structured. Yesterday defections accumulated both among the most conservative lawmakers and Republican centrists, even after a day of intense lobbying by President Trump. President Trump now saying he is finished with negotiations and is calling on Republicans to vote it up or down today. If the bill doesn’t pass Trump is saying, he is finished with it and wants to move on with other things on his agenda; leaving ObamaCare intact. Budget director Mick Mulvaney said this morning that the tax cutting plans are not subject to the health care bill. Markets have believed that until health care is decided tax cut plans and fiscal spending can’t move forward. That makes sense as along as it is resolved today as Trump wants.

Feb durable goods orders at 8:30 AM EST were better than consensus estimates. Orders increased 1.7% (expectations +1.5%); and Jan orders were revised from =1.8% to +2.3%. Excluding volatile transportation orders (aircraft) up 0.4% against 0.8% expected but Jan also revised higher to 0.2% from -0.2%. Core durable goods (non-defense excluding aircraft) -0.1% against +0.5% expected. This is the advance report; in two weeks (Apr 4th) Feb factory orders will have revised and final durable goods orders.

Should be generally quiet today until a vote on health care (if it comes). Trump is done with it according to reports and comments. He appears to want it over and has used his political arm twisting up when he met with Republicans yesterday. The final vote is presently scheduled at 3:45 this afternoon; but it is still a moving target.

Source: TBWS

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