Private payrolls grow by 241K in March

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Published Date 4/4/2018

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways to slightly lower so far today. The MBS market worsened by -19 bps yesterday. This may've been enough to worsen mortgage rates or fees. Rates experienced moderate to low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: The March ADP Private Payrolls blows past estimates of 205K, hitting 241K. Last time, the reading came in at 235K and will be revised. Anything above 185K is strong jobs data.

ISM Non-Manufacturing: The March reading for the services sector came in at 58.8 versus expectations of 59.0. Anything above 50 expansionary, so this is a very hot number. The services sector accounts for more than 2/3 of our economy, so this reading gets more weight than the ISM Manufacturing data.

Factory Orders: The February reading is expected to come in at 1.7%, generally not a factor in rates.

China: The Caixin China Services PMI 52.3 vs est of 54.5.

Japan: Markit Services PMI 50.9 vs est of 51.6.

Eurozone: Unemployment is 8.5% vs est of 8.5%, CPI YOY 1.4% vs est of 1.4%.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

Mortgage rates continue to trade in a very tight range with relatively low volatility. Look for much of the same today. Of course, if something unexpected happens politically or geopolitically we could see volatility in rates.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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