Jobless claims continue low trendline

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Published Date 11/9/2017

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways to slightly higher so far today. The MBS market worsened by -9 bps yesterday. This may've been enough to worsen mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims hit 239K vs est of 231K. The more closely watched 4-week moving average fell from 232,500 to 231,250, the very low trendline is still very much intact and very positive for the labor sector.

Wholesale Inventories: The September reading is expected to hit 0.3%, not a factor in pricing.

Treasury Auction: Today, we have our 30-year bond.

Tax Reform: Senate Finance Committee Chair Orrin Hatch is expected to release the Senate's updated Tax proposal, and the House Ways and Means Chair Kevin Brady said that he is ready so submit their revisions to the committee to vote on..if it passes, the full House will vote on it.

China: Inflationary reports were a little hotter than expected. PPY YOY was 6.9% vs est of 6.6% and CPI YOY was 1.9% vs est of 1.8%.

Japan: Had a massive stock market meltdown of 850 points before recovering. It all started with hitting a new all-time intraday high, and then an enormous sell-off triggered panic. But the market responded by buying the "dip" and reclaimed much of the intra-day sell-off.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Average

Mortgage rates and the market continue to eye tax reform. We'll be keeping an eye on whether it looks like congress can pass a simulative tax plan or it will get stuck in partisan debate.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.